Polls
Posted by Stuart at 08:22 AM on October 30, 2004Ok, I have to write one more political post. Last week I read an interesting online article that claimed that the daily presidential polls have a much larger range of error than they advertise.
The theory is that the polling is done by phone -- and the pollsters only call land-lines, not cell phones. Why does this matter? Because a small percentage of people do not have even have a land line and instead use their cell phone for all calls. I can buy this argument, since I was one of those people when I lived in San Francisco.
But again, why does it matter if cell phone users aren't counted in the polls? Because, as the theory goes, these voters are more likely to vote for Kerry. In a close election, this small percentage of (for now) uncounted voters just might make the difference.
No matter who you support in next week's election, you can read the article for yourself. It's entitled Why We Probably Shouldn't Put Too Much Faith in Presidential Tracking Polls.
Only three more days...
Hey Stuart,
Talking about politic, I think you should watch a movie called "FAHRENHEIT 9/11". And please tell me it is true or not.
JOCK
polls are not gonna make a difference(and always change). the thing is, in the next few days who are they(american) gonna vote for, this is for real!
You're right Oui. Polls don't matter. All that matters is that final electorial college count. Two more days. I'm getting nervous!
Jock, I do want to see Fahrenheit 9/11. I think parts of it are definitely true. I also know that Michael Moore has a tendency to go over the top and distort facts a bit. At least he does in his books. But from what I have heard, the movie does make a few good, true points.
I saw that the movie started playing in Bangkok this week. Maybe I will go see it soon.
As far as the movie is concerned we watched it last night. True - some good points are made, but Michael Moore does distort some facts, which lays to question how he leads the viewer to think that ALL that he presents is true and factual, through his usage of connecting the dots.
I fell asleep 3/4 of the way through the documentary .....
Generally, what Fahrenheit 9/11 explicitly states is true. Some of what it implies but doesn't directly state is at least unproven if not false. But, on the whole, it is a stunning indictment of the folly of the Bush administraition's gross mishandling of the war on terror and the war in Iraq (which are of course two separate things, despite their best efforts to tell us otherwise). I think the most powerful moment of the movie is seeing Bush sitting there like a deer in headlights for 7 minutes after being told America was under attack, and that is clearly true
I for one am glad the election will be over tomorrow! Today's polls (which I agree undercount Kerry supporters) have Kerry winning in Ohio, Penn, and Florida and thus winning the electoral vote. Here's hoping we're right.
Well - the vote did indeed turn out otherwise - contrary to many voters actions and hopes throughout the campaign.
As far as the deer in the headlights look and response of President Bush after the attack on the World Trade Center ....... He was clearly distraught and disturbed ..... my take was that he did not want to cause panic. Here he was in a Florida classroom, thousands of miles away from the chaos, reading to school children. I wouldn't have up and left and ran out of the room either.
His response was one that I could relate to .... stop and collect your thoughts, and remain calm ... that is exactly what he did.
Now if he was speaking to a group of adults --- then I believe his non-verbal response would have been the same, but would be able to vocalize the turn of events in the country, and politely and quickly remove himself.
Most polls are like this so should be taken with a grain of salt. In reality, they are political tools that can be used to manipulate the perception of reality and swing votes by a minute margin - sometimes enough to win, but usually it doesn't make a difference.