It's over. John Kerry won the Presidential nomination for the Democratic Party last week.
Well, at least if the most accurate pre-selection group picked it correctly. Every four years since 1908, students at my alma mater Washington and Lee University have met in a Mock Convention to chose the candidate who will gain the out-of-power party's nomination. Seventeen out of twenty-two tries (and every time but once since 1948) they have gotten it right.
We got it right my senior year, picking Bill Clinton to lead the charge against George Bush Sr. We missed on the VP choice though, thinking that Mario Cuomo would be a nice balance on the ticket. Oh well. This year, the students picked John Edwards.
Will this year's W&L students make it 8 in a row? We'll find out in a few months, but things are looking good so far.
I think it's scary and amusing that the media (not to mention W&L) has already crowned Kerry when he only has 119 of the 2161 delegates needed to win the nomination. That's the current "pledged" delegate count. Dean has 16 pledged. If you include "super" delegates who have stated their intentions, Kerry has 214 versus Dean's 136. More data here: http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/20040127_px_RESULTS/
Still, my point is that nobody is even CLOSE to the 2000+ delegates needed. Yet, thanks to the media's exit polls, predictions, and estimates, we might as well forget the rest of the process -- if you're in a state that has yet to hold its primary/caucus, you might as well just vote for Kerry since he's already won according to CNN, MSNBC, etc.
Yes, I'm feeling cynical. I don't really have anything against Kerry, it's just the whole system that is a mess.
The only difference between the media and W&L's Mock Convention in this case is that the students at W&L chose a state to represent and then spend a lot of time actually doing real research in their chosen state. That's why it has been so accurate over the years. (As opposed to just picking the candidate with the most momentum coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire like the media has).
In general, though, I agree with you Jase. It is especially bad living on the West Coast (as I am sure you know). If you wait to vote after work on election day, you can listen to the "results" on the radio in the car on the way there.
Not to mention, I think the whole electoral college is a sham. Don't even get me started on that one!
- Stuart